TRADE OUTSIDE THE US (TOTUS): Imagining a 5–7 Year India–China Economic Rapprochement

 

When global trade systems fracture and geopolitical rivalries deepen, it takes imagination and pragmatism to ask: what if Asia’s two largest economies, India and China, suspended their hostilities for a few years and chose partnership over competition? 

In this hypothetically written article, “Trade Outside the US” (TOTUS) scenario, both nations decide that shared prosperity and regional resilience outweigh short-term political differences. And of course, for both nations, trade with the US continues to flourish and grow. An “And” scenario where both happen – Trade with the US and Trade Outside the US.

For nearly two decades, India and China have walked parallel paths—both chasing growth, technology, and global influence. Yet their bilateral relationship has been frozen by mistrust, border confrontations, and diverging political alignments. A TOTUS-style detente would mean zooming out: treating Asia as the growth engine of the next decade rather than the battleground of the last one.

Complementary Strengths in Manufacturing and Trade

China’s economy is maturing rapidly. Rising labor costs, demographic softening, and the West’s reorientation toward “de-risking” are compelling Beijing to relocate some production abroad. India, meanwhile, is ascending as an alternative manufacturing hub with its Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes, a young workforce, and expanding logistics capacity.

A pragmatic partnership could see China transferring part of its low-margin, labor-intensive manufacturing to India, particularly in electronics assembly, apparel, toys, and solar components. Indian ports and industrial corridors like Dholera, Krishnapatnam, and Vizhinjam could attract Chinese investment under joint ventures, blending Chinese efficiency with Indian policy facilitation. Chinese firms, still dominant in supply chains, could use India as a cost base to serve Middle Eastern, African, and European markets, effectively creating a two-tiered Asian manufacturing ecosystem.

At the same time, India could export software, digital solutions, and pharmaceuticals to China. With its strengths in fintech, e-governance tools, and healthtech, India could support China’s shift toward a service-led, consumer-first economy. Joint R&D in electric mobility and green hydrogen could also emerge as a convergence zone—China bringing scale, India adding digital integration.

Technology and Infrastructure Cooperation

If pragmatic, TOTUS would also have to involve shared infrastructure creation. India and China could co-finance digital and physical corridors across South and Southeast Asia—rail and highway links from Kolkata to Kunming, or coordinated port development under the Bay of Bengal Initiative.

Technology transfer could happen not in sensitive defense-linked fields, but in accessible high-impact areas: EV charging standards, battery recycling, smart grids, water desalination, and affordable robotics. Such exchanges would multiply the benefits of China’s industrial know-how and India’s adaptive innovation. The Belt and Road Initiative could be partially reimagined: not as a geopolitical play but as a framework of co-development where Indian and Chinese contractors work jointly in emerging markets.

The Tourism and People-to-People Dividend

Despite their differences, India and China share deep civilizational ties—from Buddhism to silk trade routes. Reviving structured tourism could reopen cultural arteries between the two. Indian travelers could explore ancient Chinese Buddhist sites, while Chinese tourists could visit Bodh Gaya, Nalanda, and Sarnath.

Joint visa facilitation programs, direct airlines between tier-two cities, and student exchange mechanisms could normalize interactions among the young. Universities could establish dual-degree programs in technology and international relations, while art and film exchanges could help each side rediscover how much they have in common beyond the diplomatic coldness.

Business councils and industrial chambers could organize annual “TOTUS Summits” focusing purely on sectors of mutual interest — logistics, healthcare, fintech, renewable energy, and food processing — deliberately avoiding political corridors.

Can It Happen in Reality?

The biggest question, however, is feasibility. Can mistrust rooted in border disputes, security anxieties, and competing global ambitions truly be set aside? Realistically, a full rapprochement is improbable in the short term. Both governments prioritize domestic nationalism and strategic autonomy, and political optics make sustained cooperation difficult.

Yet, partial alignment is possible. The logic of economics often trumps sentiment. A five-to-seven-year “quiet cooperation” based on functional convergence rather than diplomatic symbolism could take shape. Think of it as a ceasefire in competition—both sides acting in parallel rather than in opposition.

A TOTUS framework would need cautious architecture: clear project-level governance, neutral currency settlements (perhaps through a dual-rupee-yuan digital clearing arrangement), and an emphasis on depoliticized sectors like supply chain management, renewables, and agri-tech.

Lessons and Reflections

The hypothetical India–China TOTUS experiment, even if partially realized, would mark a turning point for Asia. It would signal that cooperation and coexistence can yield more durable power than confrontation. It would also underscore that multipolar trade systems flourish only when nations see each other not as rivals but as co-builders of stability.

There are diplomatic risks, of course. But history shows that even temporary truces built on economic logic can reshape perception. The European Union began as a coal and steel alliance after bitter wars; ASEAN matured out of mutual vulnerability. If India and China could replicate such pragmatism—framed by limited trust but structured cooperation—Asia could lead a truly post-Western economic order.

Ultimately, the success of TOTUS would depend less on grand rhetoric and more on ground-level execution: moving goods, exchanging students, co-creating technology, and letting markets—not militaries—dictate the narrative.

As Rabindranath Tagore once wrote, “Faith is the bird that feels the light and sings when the dawn is still dark.” TOTUS, in that sense, would be an act of economic faith - a belief that Asia’s century can still be collectively written.

So, is this hypothetical piece possible? Or will it remain a hallucinatory piece, a figment of one’s imagination. Either ways, a little out-of-the-box thought may not hurt even if it remains just a hallucination.